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Break Time's Over: Here's What's Coming In The Busy Week Ahead
Happy New Year! The key report for this week will be the December employment report to be released on Friday, Jan 7th. Other key reports include the ISM manufacturing index on Monday, vehicle sales on...
View ArticleFinally! A Real Hint Of Good Employment News
Twice a month Gallup polls approximately 30,000 adults on unemployment. This survey is Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA). Before I get to the data, this is a reminder that the employment series really...
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A Deeper Dive Into December's New Home Sales
The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 329 thousand.This is up from a revised 280 thousand in November.The first graph shows monthly...
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Core Measures Show Increase In Inflation (CPI, U)
Earlier today the BLS reported:The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in February on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported...
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The Gritty Details Behind The Double Dip Drop In The Case-Shiller Index
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for March (actually a 3 month average of January, February and March). This includes prices for 20 individual cities and and two composite...
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Some Preliminary Thoughts On Bernanke's 2011 Jackson Hole Speech
As I mentioned in the weekly schedule, the most anticipated event this coming week is Fed Chairman Bernanke's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Here are some preliminary thoughts about the speech ...•...
View ArticleThe Smart Money Is Betting On A Recovery In The Housing Market
Residential investment made a small positive contribution to GDP in 2011, for the first time since 2005. And construction employment turned slightly positive in 2011. Now the question is what will...
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Mortgages Originated In 2010 And 2011 See Record Low Default Rates
From LPS Applied Analytics: LPS' Mortgage Monitor Shows 2010, 2011 Originations Among Best Quality on Record The December Mortgage Monitor report released by Lender Processing Services shows mortgage...
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Existing Home Inventory Declines 17% Year-Over-Year In January
Another update: I've been using inventory numbers from HousingTracker / DeptofNumbers to track changes in inventory. Tom Lawler mentioned this last year.According to the deptofnumbers.com for monthly...
View ArticleCrucial Facts To Keep In Mind Ahead Of Today's Big Jobs Report
Today the BLS will release the January Employment Situation Summary at 8:30 AM ET. Bloomberg is showing the consensus is for an increase of 135,000 payroll jobs in January, and for the unemployment...
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A Huge New Call On Housing That You Must Pay Attention To
Pundits and bloggers are making predictions all the time, and usually they should just be ignored.Today though, the popular economics blog Calculated Risk published a post called The Housing Bottom Is...
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This Key Distressed Housing Market Is Already On Course For A Record Year
This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas has seen the largest price decline of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. Prices, as of the November report, were off 61.6% from the...
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Ridiculously High Gas Prices Expected To Hit Major US Cities By Memorial Day
From the Mercury News: Gas prices surging beyond $4 a gallon -- and they will go higherGasoline prices are rising at an almost unheard-of pace, and painfully so in California, where the cost for a...
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Why You Need To Keep Your Eyes Focused On Home Inventories
Analysts are trying to explain the recent sharp decline in existing home inventory and trying to estimate the impact of less inventory on house prices. As an example, Goldman Sachs economist Zach Pandl...
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This Is Where Hiring Is Coming From
Jon Lansner at the O.C. Register wrote about looking at year-over-year changes: Forget the debate about the true oomph of February's 227,000 job gain from January.Look at this same data on a...
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The Great Recession Doesn't Even Compare To The Great Depression
The causes of the Great Recession were similar to the Great Depression—as opposed to most post war recessions that were caused by Fed tightening to slow inflation—and I'm frequently asked if we could...
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Las Vegas Is Back!
During the recession, I wrote about the troubles in Las Vegas and included a chart of visitor and convention attendance: Lost Vegas. Since then Las Vegas visitor traffic has recovered.From the Las...
View ArticleThe Unofficial Problem Bank List Rises To 921
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources. (And only US banks).Here is the unofficial problem bank list for June 22, 2012. (table is sortable by assets, state,...
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CHART: The Bottom In The US Housing Market Should Now Be Obvious To Everyone
Early this year when I wrote The Housing Bottom is Here and Housing: The Two Bottoms, I pointed out there are usually two bottoms for housing: the first for new home sales, housing starts and...
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The Genius Who Invented Economics Blogging Reveals How He Got Everything...
The economics blogosphere was invented in early 2005 by a retired technology executive in Southern California named Bill McBride.Thank God for that, because his blog Calculated Risk, has been an...
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